Archer Aviation stated that it plans to build approximately 250 battery-electric air taxis in 2025, with production ramping up in the following years after achieving certification by the end of 2024.

“In our first year, we will build 250 aircraft, our second year will build 500 aircraft, our third year will build 650 aircraft and then we scale it up to around 2,000 aircraft per year,” CEO Adam Goldstein said in an interview.

Archer hopes to certify its pilot-plus-four-passenger ‘Midnight’ aircraft by the end of 2024, though the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is still developing certification rules for these futuristic aircraft.

“In terms of aircraft production, we have estimated in our Archer model ~20 units in 2025,” JPM analyst Bill Peterson said.

“We are not negative on the space, but think it will take a little longer to play out with the ramp not as steep as these companies had projected in their SPAC decks from over a year ago,” he added.

Once certified, the California-based start-electric up’s Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft will compete in a crowded market with dozens of other developers vying to reinvent urban transportation, including Joby Aviation and Vertical Aerospace Ltd.

The nascent sector, which is backed by industrial heavyweights such as Toyota Motor Corp and Delta Air Lines, still faces significant challenges such as certification, developing a suitable air traffic management system, and improving battery technology, among others.

The FAA announced in May that it was changing its regulatory approach to certifying eVTOLs by classifying them as powered-lift aircraft rather than small aircraft, raising concerns about certification delays.

Goldstein expects that the industry will require a thousand eVTOL aircraft per year.